Baseball
The Gazette’s 2010 Blue Jays Primer
Young Blue Jays in for a long season as they rebuild their pitching staff, batting order
Spring is great.
The sun is shining, the birds are singing, the patios are opening — and the Toronto Blue Jays, with a 0-0 record, are .500.
Jays fans will want to relish this moment as all indications point to a difficult season for this young, rebuilding ball club. Nevertheless, here’s how the Blue Jays stack up as they open their 33rd season.
The Lineup
Right fielder Jose Bautista will be tasked with lead off duties this season, after last year’s lead off man Marco Scutaro and his team-leading .379 OBP departed to the Boston Red Sox in the offseason. Bautista has limited experience in the role but has put up decent numbers in his 93 games batting lead off, with a .275 batting average and .359 on base percentage. He’ll look to replicate those numbers in Toronto and build on a tremendous spring that saw him bat .439 with five home runs and 11 runs batted in.
Aaron Hill will try to pick up where he left off last year — 36 home runs, 108 RBIs, an all star selection and a silver slugger award — batting second and patrolling second base. The 28-year-old showed no signs of slowing down this spring, leading the Jays with 6 home runs and 15 RBIs. He also led the team in walks with 11, which is an encouraging sign for a player who has been criticized for being impatient at the plate. A point of reference? Hill’s 11 walks this spring came in 60 plate appearances. Last season he drew just 42 free passes in 734 plate appearances.
Following Hill in the three-hole is designated hitter Adam Lind whose .305 average, 35 home runs and 114 RBIs last season propelled him to a silver slugger award in just his first full season of MLB service. Fresh off signing a contract extension with the Jays that will pay him $18 million over the next four years, Lind will be counted on to replicate if not improve on those numbers.
Clean up hitters are usually the top paid players on their team and Vernon Wells is no exception — he’ll recieve a $12.5 million salary in 2010, along with an $8.5 million signing bonus, making him one of the top ten paid players in the entire league.
Needless to say, the Jays would appreciate a bit more return on their investment than the .260 average, 15 home runs and 66 RBIs Wells contributed in 2009.
The centre fielder has battled injuries to his wrist and hamstring in previous seasons and is only three years removed from an all star campaign when he hit 32 home runs and 106 RBIs, so there is reason to believe a healthy Wells can find his form once again. But most Jays fans know better than to be optimistic about their franchise player.
Following Wells — who manager Cito Gaston insists will bat cleanup for the majority of the season — will be any mixture of Lyle Overbay, John Buck and Edwin Encarnacion.
Overbay has been one of the Blue Jays most consistent hitters over the past two years, despite being the subject of persistent trade rumours. His .372 OBP last season was the second best on the team and his other offensive numbers were better than the aforementioned Wells, who is considered a more potent offensive threat. Overbay’s defensive prowess at first base is also underrated — the first baseman has committed just 12 errors over his past 400 games.
Behind the plate, Buck represents a definite downgrade offensively from Rod Barajas who handled most of the catching duties last season. He’s never hit for a higher average than the .247 he mustered last season and his OBP has hovered around .300 for his career.
Not encouraging numbers by any means, but Buck is simply a one-season placeholder for Jays catching prospect J. P. Arencibia who could even see major league time later this season as a September call up. As far as seat warmers go, the Jays could do worse.
One of the most interesting players to watch for the Jays this year will be Encarnacion, who arrived in the Scott Rolen trade last year. The 26-year-old battled through a wrist injury all of last season, hitting just .225 with 13 home runs and 39 RBIs. When Encarnacion was healthy the season prior, however, he belted 26 home runs.
The third baseman has undeniable raw power at the plate and had surgery to correct the problems in his wrist over the off season, so a productive year could be in store. Just don’t expect him to replicate Rolen’s brilliance at the hot corner. Despite missing time due to injuries, Encarnacion has committed 50 errors in the past three seasons alone.
Alex Gonzalez and Travis Snider will round out the Jays batting order this season, representing very different roles in the organization.
Gonzalez, like Buck, is a seat warmer. Justin Jackson, a Jays first round pick in 2007, is patiently waiting in the wings for his shot with the big league club.
Meanwhile, the Jays agreed to terms with highly-touted Cuban shortstop Adeinis Hechavarria this off season, who could also be ready for next year. So when Gonzalez posts a .230 average and a .300 OBP this season, don’t get too worked up.
Snider is anything but a seat warmer — he’s the seat filler. After two years of being yo-yoed between AAA and the majors, the 21-year-old will get a chance to establish himself as an everyday player this year, starting in left field. He had a decent spring, hitting .250 with 3 home runs and 8 RBIs while drawing 8 walks. Snider has the potential for a breakout season to the tune of 20 home runs and 80 RBIs — whether he’s ready to do that remains to be seen.
The Bench
Fan favourite John McDonald contributes more with his glove than his bat, but will see more playing time behind Gonzalez than he did spelling Scutaro. Jose Molina is another player more known for his contributions defensively than at the plate. Look for him to see action twice a week to give John Buck a rest.
Mike McCoy replaces Joe Inglett as the utility man. The 29-year-old only has only six major league plate appearances under his belt, but he’ll get a chance to prove himself with the Jays where you can expect him to see action at practically every position except first base and catcher.
Finally, 32-year-old veteran Randy Ruiz will get a chance to prove he deserves a job in the majors after an 11 year career that has seen him spend time with 10 different organizations. He’s certainly shown he can hit — Ruiz put up a .313 average and .385 OBP in 33 games after being called up to the Blue Jays last August.

The Rotation
Shaun Marcum becomes the first pitcher in seven years not named Roy Halladay to start on opening day after Halladay was shipped to Philadelphia in the offseason. Marcum hasn’t thrown a regular season pitch since 2008 and has big shoes to fill as the staff ace — even if he only has the spot by default.
His spring was coming along fine until Mar. 26 when he allowed nine earned runs in five innings against the Tampa Bay Rays. He’ll rely on his changeup and his slider to help offset the trio of fastballs he throws — a four-seamer, a two-seamer and a cutter. He’ll be successful if he varies his pitches and speeds effectively.
Gaston insists on pitching 6-foot-7 left-hander Brian Tallet after Marcum, despite the mountain of evidence against the decision. The Jays only have one left-hander in their bullpen going into the season and last year Tallet’s earned run average and walks and hits per innings pitched were significantly lower as a reliever than a starter.
The most likely scenario will see Tallet move to the bullpen after Marc Rzepczynski and Dustin McGowan return from the disabled list. But it’s always best to expect the unexpected with Gaston.
Ricky Romero made a strong case for rookie-of-the-year in 2009 going 7-3 with an impressive 3.00 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in the first half of the season before running out of gas in the second half and seeing his ERA balloon to 5.54 and his WHIP to 1.77. The key for Romero this year will be to remain consistent throughout the season while avoiding a sophomore slump.
The Jays and Seattle Mariners swapped pitchers named Brandon this summer, with the Mariners taking hard-throwing reliever Brandon League and the Jays acquiring 26-year-old Brandon Morrow. Morrow split time as a starter and a reliever with the Mariners, having most of his success coming out of the bullpen.
The Jays are dead set on using him as a starter, however, where he’ll rely on his mid-nineties fastball to overpower hitters and his off-speed change up and curveball to induce strike outs.
Rounding out the rotation is left-hander Dana Eveland who earned a spot on the team with an exceptionally strong spring, posting a 1.80 ERA and striking out 21 batters over 25 innings.
Eveland’s destiny lies in his own hands — if he carries over his strong spring numbers into the regular season, he’ll be a rotation staple. But if he falters, he’ll quickly find himself on waivers, destined for AAA Las Vegas in favour of another of the Jays young arms from the minors.
The Bullpen
Easily their biggest strength this year, the Jays will rely on the bullpen to bail out their young starters who may have trouble escaping the fourth or fifth innings.
Shawn Camp, Jeremy Accardo, Casey Janssen and Merkin Valdez will be counted on heavily to eat up those middle innings and keep the Jays alive in close games.
Meanwhile, Scott Downs and Kevin Gregg provide a serviceable set-up tandem. Both have performed well as closers in previous seasons and can easily step into that role if need be.
Of course, they will only be needed to fill the closer role if the incumbent Jason Frasor falters. Frasor converted on 11 of 14 save opportunities last season, striking out just under a batter an inning and posting an ERA of 2.50 and a WHIP of 1.02 on his way. It’s hard to argue with those numbers — the ninth-inning role will be Frasor’s to lose.
Zwellin’ it like it is Predictions
Blue Jays Predictions
Final record: 70-92 — The groundwork has clearly been laid for a young, talented team that can challenge in the AL East in 2 or 3 years. This year? The pitching staff is far too young and inexperienced to handle the sluggers in the AL East while the hitting talent drops off considerably after Aaron Hill and Adam Lind.
Batting MVP: Aaron Hill — Look for the 28-year-old to follow up his breakout 2009 campaign with another big season in 2010. Hill has already shown this spring that he’s going to bring more discipline to the plate — 11 walks during spring training — which means he’ll see more good pitches to hit.
Pitching MVP: Ricky Romero — Romero made a strong case for rookie-of-the-year in 2009 before running out of gas in the second half. Now, a year older and stronger, Romero will have the stamina to pitch well all season long and the 25-year-old has paid enough dues in the minors to avoid a sophomore slump.
Breakout Season: Travis Snider — Simply put, the time is now for Snider to prove he was worthy of all the ballyhoo about him being one of the best young hitters in baseball. Snider has the confidence of the manager — he’ll play every day — now all he has to do is hit.
Surprise contributor: Vernon Wells — it’s a shame we have to talk about Wells as a surprise contributor, but it’s a reality, considering his .711 OPS last year. A healthy Wells is far too talented of a hitter to slump for this long — he’ll bounce back in 2010 and creep a little closer to earning his $21 million pay cheque.
American League Predictions
Division Winners
AL East — New York Yankees
AL Central — Minnesota Twins
AL West — Texas Rangers
AL Wildcard — Boston Red Sox
AL MVP — Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees
AL Cy Young — Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
AL Rookie of the Year — Brian Matusz, Baltimore Orioles
National League Predictions
Division Winners
NL East — Philadelphia Phillies
NL Central — St Louis Cardinals
NL West — Colorado Rockies
NL Wildcard — Los Angeles Dodgers
NL MVP — Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals
NL Cy Young — Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies
NL Rookie of the Year — Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves
World Series
Philadelphia Phillies defeat New York Yankees





