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The OUA Optimism Rankings

Until those foolish Las Vegas odds makers finally come to their senses and start determining odds for Canadian Interuniversity Sport, we’ll really have no way of handicapping upcoming seasons.

But coming into the 2010 OUA football season, one thing is clear — this year’s competition is truly a crapshoot. Five of the ten…. errr nine teams have a legitimate shot at advancing to the Yates Cup, which is why the myriad of preseason rankings that currently litter the internet are kind of incredibly pointless.

So in lieu of irrelevant rankings based on silly things like talent, coaching or personnel, I’ve accumulated rankings based on optimism — ordered from those with the highest aspirations going into the season to the teams wallowing in despair.

As Larry Dobrow — whose awesome weekly MLB  power rankings and MLB optimism index are the inspiration for this experiment — put it, “think of it as a power rankings for your feelings.”

So here it is — your first ever OUA optimism rankings, along with selected notes and an optimism measure which I assure you is entirely arbitrary and based on absolutely nothing.

Photo by Jeff Chan

All photos courtesy of the incomparable Jeff Chan.

Ottawa Gee Gee’s — 96.4 — Aggressively confident

• The Gee Gee’s are singlehandedly keeping Ottawa bus drivers in business with their annually atrocious travel schedule. They get a bit of a break by drawing a date in Kingston and a bit of a kick in the teeth by opening their season in Windsor. It’s only 800 km…
• Of course, maybe that’s not such a bad thing. The Gee Gee’s went 4-0 on the road in 2009 but just 2-3 at home including their 27-15 playoff loss to McMaster.
• Tough to pinpoint why, but the Gee Gee’s have under-performed the last few years. Will rookie head coach Jean-Philippe Asselin — who, at 27-years-old, could probably play on this team — help shake them out of their funk?
• QB Brad Sinopoli is suddenly the most experienced pivot in the league after the three musketeers (Faulds, Brannagan, Dunk) moved on. He had a quietly impressive season — 11 touchdowns, 2084 yards — in 2009
• The team will field a starting lineup made up almost entirely of fifth year players — I guess they just like education that much…
• I’d love to make more fun of the Gee Gee’s here, but I’m struggling — this team actually looks really good.

Wilfrid Laurier Golden Hawks  — 90.2 — Firmly undaunted

Dillon Heap and head coach Gary Jeffries. Photo by Jeff Chan.

• This could be trouble. Taurean Allen is off to the CFL, Chime Ihekwoaba is gone to the NFL and Courtney Stephen is lost to the NCAA. Suddenly one of the scariest defences in the league doesn’t look so frightening.
• What they do have is a nifty training camp video featuring the Remember the Titans — “Are you sure football is fun!?!?!?” —  ‘run up and down the stadium stairs workout.
• Dillon Heap returns with his Tasmanian devil routine on kick returns. He’s easily the most exciting returner in the OUA.
• Meanwhile, University of Waterloo deserter Dustin Zender crosses University Ave. to join the Golden Hawks receiving corps and take some of the weightoff the shoulders ofHeap and Shamawd Chambers .
• No wonder the quarterback position is such a big question mark for so many OUA teams this year — Laurier is hogging all of them. They have three quarterbacks (incumbent Luke Thompson, last year’s second stringer turned starter Evan Pawliuk and NCAA transfer Shane Kelly) who can easily play well in this league. Someone’s not going to be happy with their playing time in that locker room.
• Not much to see on defence but if your ridiculously loaded offence can score 50+ points a game, what does it really matter?
• Slot back Vince Luciani has easily the best twitter account in the CIS. Never underestimate the value of street cred.
• Running back Mike Montoya and his Jersey Shore arms bench pressed 225 lbs 40 times at the CFL’s evaluation camp last year. Of course those wel-sculpted guns don’t really help when it comes to holding onto the football — he had more fumbles than touchdowns last season. But when you lead the league in rushing I suppose it doesn’t really matter.

McMaster Marauders — 88.7 — Discreetly promising

• There is legitimate reason to be optimistic here. The Marauders kind of resemble the 2009 Queen’s Gaels — a solid core of cohesive veterans who have been playing together for years. Add a division weakened by losing its top three quarterbacks and it could be a perfect storm for a McMaster run in the playoffs this year. Seriously…
• Sometimes it’s easy to forget that CIS football players are also full time students enrolled in anywhere from three to five courses per semester. Apparently Marauders cornerback Cody Lynch forgot about that too — after being named the OUA rookie of the year in 2009 he promptly flunked out of school.
• Marauders kicker Andrew Waugh was 9 for 12 on field goals last year which apparently wasn’t good enough to stop McMaster from recruiting kicking wizard Tyler Crapigna who may just be the next Rob Maver. Nice knowing ya, Andrew.
• Head coach Stefan Ptaszek’s name may be hard to pronounce, but he’s one of the craftier coaches in the OUA and hasn’t had a losing record in the regular season since he took over in 2006.
• The Marauders are probably regretting whatever they have done to scorn the OUA schedule-maker — they play Queen’s, Laurier, Western and Ottawa in their first four games.

Western Mustangs — 85.3 — Cautiously optimistic

Donnie Marshall (7) chats with his father and head coach Greg Marshall, left, and his predecessor Michael Faulds, right. Photo by Jeff Chan.

• Michael Faulds, who carried the team — sometimes on just one leg — for the past five years, is gone — off to York to pursue a career in coaching.
• Who will step up to fill the void? Donnie Marshall, the coach’s son? Ben Rossong, the incoming east coast phenom?  Jack Fairs, the former Mustangs basketball, hockey and tennis athlete who also played both ways for the football team and is currently the Mustangs squash coach? Okay maybe that last one is a stretch. But nevertheless, intrigue!
• Defensive Lineman Mike Van Praet is healthy — well, as healthy as you can be at 300+ pounds — and was recently described as a “dyke” by the London Free Press. Ummm… sure! UWO will just be happy if he can fill the void left by Chris Greaves who now plies his trade for the Winnipeg Blue Bombers.
• Running back Nathan Riva will be busy. If he can run for 200 yards a game like he did in the playoffs last year then maybe this team has a chance! Look for timeless head coach Greg Marshall — he’s still got it! — to call his own number and take over the running back duties if Riva falters.
• And as I write that Riva tears his hamstring in training camp. Panic! Does anyone have Da’Shawn Thomas’ cell number?
• Lil’ Wayne fan and occasional Gazette model John Surla — the 2009 OUA defensive player of the year — still patrols the secondary at TD Waterhouse, which is bad for opposition running backs but good for trash talk enthusiasts.
• WR Brian Marshall — son of head coach Greg, brother of QB Donnie, nephew of 80’s era FB Blake, not related to former Golden State Warriors small forward Donyell — joins the team as the Marshall brood’s plan to turn the Mustangs into a family business continues to evolve.
• Thanks to the wisenheimers at Waterloo, the Mustangs now open the season with three games in 11 days.
• My office is on the campus of the University of Western Ontario so be my guest and question this, but I think this Mustangs team is being seriously under-rated in pre-season polling.

Queen’s Gaels — 83.1 — Basking in the glow

• The good news is they’re still technically the national champions until November 27. The bad news? They lost the entire core of their team. Minor detail…
• Last season the Gaels’ offensive line was a lot like the mother hen at the bar on Saturday night — nothing was getting through that. But with several new faces this season, things could get rather uncomfortable for the Gaels quarterback…
• Oh yeah, who the hell is going to play quarterback? Justin Chapdelaine would seem to have the inside track, but he’s going to have a steep learning curve. He was sacked three times in the extremely limited action he saw last season. A point of reference? Danny Brannagan — who took 98% of the snaps — was sacked just five times all season…
• Whoever gets the call behind centre will certainly have some targets to throw too. Devan Sheahan, Blaise Morrison and Chris Ioannides will spread defences like butter.
• The defence is Osie Ukwuoma’s unit now, I guess. But when your best defensive player past him is probably sophomore Frank Pankewich, we may have a problem.
• I will say this — Ben D’Andrea, Alex Daprato and Stephen Laporte picked up their games defensively in the 2009 playoffs when it counted. Especially in the Vanier Cup.
• Of course the biggest advantage for the Gaels is Richardson Stadium, the dilapidated grassy abyss… I mean… football field they play on. They haven’t lost a regular season game at home since 2007.

The Gaels offensive line was their mother hen in 2009. Photo by Jeff Chan.

Guelph Gryphons — 73.4 — Shaken resolve

• Good news for people who like bad news — the Gryphons lost easily their three best players from 2009 in QB Justin Dunk, K Rob Maver and OL Ryan Bomben.
• Standout running back Nick FitzGibbon is still around but past him things get real iffy on the offensive side of the ball which is traditionally a strength for the Gryphons.
• True story — Dunk is the sports editor for the Guelph student newspaper The Ontarion this year. Objectivity is overrated anyway…
• We are talking about optimism here and, quite frankly, second year QB Chris Rossetti doesn’t inspire confidence in anybody.
• Conventional wisdom says defence wins football games so respect to the Gryphons for thinking outside the box by not fielding one. This is easily still one of the worst defensive units outside of metropolitan Toronto. They allowed an astronomical 490 yards per game last season.
• Another true story — At last year’s homecoming game, the nor’ westerly wind caught the cloud of marijuana smoke that hung over Guelph campus and blew it down onto the sidelines of the Western Mustangs. The Gryphons were almost able to beat their suddenly timid and hungry foes, but Western held on for the 41-39 win. Good try, fellas…
• Incoming Head Coach Stu Lang — who won hearts when he said he would coach the team if they only paid him a dollar — brings two full time coordinators with him who should help over-complicate things for this young Gryphons squad.
• New coaching staff, same atrocious defence, young yet underwhelming offence — this is a team just trying to tread water

University of Toronto Varsity Blues — 60.3 — Gaining courage

• Oh, silly U of T. Investing all of your money into academics and research instead of athletics. Idiots…
• The Blues are actually fairly excited about their backfield this year. Really, no joke. Walter Cariazo — who is deceptively speedy — returns to battle for snaps with University of Toledo — like, the NCAA division one University of Toledo — transfer Chris Weiland and prized recruit Keema Nnawuchi.
• Here’s a reason for optimism: They have the Neate Sager bump. The CIS guru — and unabashed Queen’s supporter — actually picked this team to finish 3-5 and earn the sixth and final OUA playoff spot.
• Here’s a reason to forget about that optimism: the team does not have a defence. They gave up 500 yards per game last season and didn’t make a single significant addition to the unit in the off season.
• Andrew Gillis is back behind centre. Surely he’s familiar with the playbook but it doesn’t really matter when half your snaps just turn into scrambles anyway. If only he had some semblance of an offensive line we could actually see what it’s like when he passes the ball.
• The Varsity Blues are kind of like Entourage — Any given week you might get a good surprise individual performance but as a whole it’s pretty bad.

Windsor Lancers — 42.1 — Secure with own inadequacy

• Wait, these guys still have a team?
• Kinda like how standing next to the pimply kid with the lazy eye in class pictures always made you look better by comparison, not much attention has been paid to the Lancers’ futility in recent years because, well, York and Toronto are just a bit better at being terrible.
• The Lancers made absolutely zero sense in 2009, only managing to beat the putrid York Lions by three points and allowing Waterloo to shut them out 49-0, while at the same time losing to McMaster by just a point and putting up a good fight against Ottawa in the final week of the season. Why don’t things ever just happen the way they’re supposed to in this league?
• Say what you will about the Warriors, they certainly make things interesting. They managed to lose to McMaster in overtime last year when they blocked a field goal and returned it for a touchdown only to have the play negated by a blocking penalty, giving McMaster a single point and the win.
• I really, really want to mention a couple notable incoming players for this season, but it’s just a wasteland of poor recruiting and misused resources.
• Their perceived advantage in American recruitment — Like Brett Favre’s retirement and hangover-free beer — was unfortunately just too good to be true.
• There is a very real possibility that this team could drop below Toronto if they don’t get their act together. And that’s something I never thought I would write.

York Lions — 24.9 Soul-crushing despair

• Optimism? What is this optimism that you speak of?
  

  York quarterback Nickolas Coutu. Photo by Jeff Chan.

• True optimists will tell you that, like Shania Twain in a basement elevator, the Lions can only go up from here. Unless they somehow get worse this year — which is actually a possibility…
• Last season the Lions defensive strategy basically consisted of trying to hold the opposing team to under 50 points — a feat they only accomplished in half their games…
• The last time York won a game? September 29, 2007 when they beat the University of Toronto 21-20 in a barn burner that saw both teams punt for more yards than they collected offensively. We’d all like to pretend that debacle never happened, but until York wins again — don’t hold your breath — it’s a part of history…
• The season should get off on the right foot — the Lions chose to play their only preseason game against perennial Vanier Cup favourites Laval for reasons that can only be explained as masochistic.
• Unless they can figure out how to multiply his DNA and begin farming an army of football players in his mold, it’s doubtful that former Mustangs QB and CIS all-time leading passer Michael Faulds can save this offence as its new coordinator.
• But look on the bright side, not many teams boast offensive coordinators who are better athletes than the majority of the team. So they’ve got that.

Waterloo Warriors — 2.9 — Awkwardly lingering

• Waterloo looks to challenge this year with a good core of returning players plus a talented class of incoming recruits. They’ll have strong contributions from…
• What’s that? They arrested who? And the school did what? For the entire season? Oh… This is awkward….

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